Author: Tatyana Gracheva
Activity of Kazakhstan’s service sector increases
According to the headline Freedom Holding Corp. PMI® Business Activity Index, there is a sixth consecutive monthly growth in output across the Kazakh service sector in June. Notably, the index increased for four months in a row in May, at 55.1, up from 54.3 — the highest recorded point since March 2019.
As Yerlan Abdikarimov, director of the Financial Analysis Department at Freedom Finance Global, said, new contracts and marketing strategies revived the market and supported employment. The growth of sales prices has reflected rising operating costs.
He also mentioned signals of a probable market correction, such as slowing down of the growth of business activity’s pace compared to May, which had the strongest increase in the past two years, in spite of dropping expectations for the year ahead to a 12-month low.
According to the experts, increased caution of businesses regarding the second half of 2025, growing overall uncertainty amid intensified competition, foreign trade risks (including the ruble factor), and changes in tax policy may cause such dynamics, against the backdrop of reaching a peak in business activity growth.
Nevertheless, Abdikarimov emphasized that business expectations are still optimistic.
Although the slipping of the Kazakhstan Manufacturing PMI from 51.3 in May to 49.7 in June signaled the first deterioration in business conditions in 16 months, the index pointed to only a marginal worsening in the health of the sector. Meanwhile, the first reduction in manufacturing output since February 2024 was central to the deterioration in operating conditions. There was a notable production decline amid softer new order growth and reports of pauses to repair machinery.
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Read moreKazakhstan’s service sector reports increase in activity
The headline Freedom Holding Corp. PMI® Business Activity Index signaled a sixth consecutive monthly rise in output across the Kazakh service sector in June. Moreover, at 55.1, up from 54.3 in May, the index rose for a fourth straight month and indicated a steep rise in activity — the highest recorded in the series’ history, […]
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Read moreThe emigration from Kazakhstan reaches the lowest level in a decade
According to analysts, emigration from Kazakhstan reaches its lowest level in more than ten years. Basing on data from the National Statistics Bureau (NSB) of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan (ASPiR RK), they highlight shifting demographic and economic patterns within the country.
According to the report, only 1700 individuals left Kazakhstan for permanent residence abroad in January- April 2025. For comparison, 4800 people emigrated in the same period in 2024 (2.8 times more). Also, 8100 people entered Kazakhstan between January and April 2025, compared to 9,900 the previous year. This makes the migration balance remain positive, with more people arriving than leaving.
A consistent downward trend is underscored by a longer-term view. Around 155,700 people emigrated in 2000, while this figure had dropped to 12,700 by 2024. There were some notable upticks between 2006-2008 and 2013-2019. Nevertheless, the number of people immigrated to the country was almost two times more than the number who left in 2024 (23,900), what makes migration balance remain positive.
Geographically, Kazakhstan’s northern and eastern regions provide most emigrants. 47.9% of emigrants in 2024 came from the Kostanay, Pavlodar, Abai, North Kazakhstan, and East Kazakhstan regions.
As for destination, Russia continues to be the leader, receiving 69% of all Kazakhstani emigrants. Nevertheless, that number is decreasing dramatically: in Q1 2025, only 644 citizens moved to Russia, 75.5% less compared to the same period in 2024.
Germany occupies the second place with approximately 2,000 Kazakhstani citizens relocated there in 2024, but this number has also declined by 67.9%. Emigration to all traditional destinations has decreased generally, except for Kyrgyzstan. Gradually more people (about 300 annually) emigrate there, particularly from Kazakhstan’s southern regions.
According to the United Nations Population Fund, Kazakhstan’s economic development, increased labor demand, and the diminishing pool of ethnic migrants have caused a decline in emigration.
Another factor contributing to a new influx of migrants into Kazakhstan is population growth in southern Central Asian republics.
According to a 2024 public opinion survey conducted by the Demoscope Express Monitoring Bureau, among the 1,100 respondents, 78.5% said they had no plans to emigrate within the next two to three years. Just 6.9% wanted to emigrate, and 5.6% would like to emigrate but couldn’t do that.
The desire for higher income (24.5%), better employment opportunities (14%), and a perceived lack of prospects within Kazakhstan (23.9%) were the most common reasons for emigration. Studying abroad (11.7%), family reunification (2.6%), and returning to ancestral homelands (0.6%) were other motivations.
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