The emigration from Kazakhstan reaches the lowest level in a decade
According to analysts, emigration from Kazakhstan reaches its lowest level in more than ten years. Basing on data from the National Statistics Bureau (NSB) of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan (ASPiR RK), they highlight shifting demographic and economic patterns within the country.
According to the report, only 1700 individuals left Kazakhstan for permanent residence abroad in January- April 2025. For comparison, 4800 people emigrated in the same period in 2024 (2.8 times more). Also, 8100 people entered Kazakhstan between January and April 2025, compared to 9,900 the previous year. This makes the migration balance remain positive, with more people arriving than leaving.
A consistent downward trend is underscored by a longer-term view. Around 155,700 people emigrated in 2000, while this figure had dropped to 12,700 by 2024. There were some notable upticks between 2006-2008 and 2013-2019. Nevertheless, the number of people immigrated to the country was almost two times more than the number who left in 2024 (23,900), what makes migration balance remain positive.
Geographically, Kazakhstan’s northern and eastern regions provide most emigrants. 47.9% of emigrants in 2024 came from the Kostanay, Pavlodar, Abai, North Kazakhstan, and East Kazakhstan regions.
As for destination, Russia continues to be the leader, receiving 69% of all Kazakhstani emigrants. Nevertheless, that number is decreasing dramatically: in Q1 2025, only 644 citizens moved to Russia, 75.5% less compared to the same period in 2024.
Germany occupies the second place with approximately 2,000 Kazakhstani citizens relocated there in 2024, but this number has also declined by 67.9%. Emigration to all traditional destinations has decreased generally, except for Kyrgyzstan. Gradually more people (about 300 annually) emigrate there, particularly from Kazakhstan’s southern regions.
According to the United Nations Population Fund, Kazakhstan’s economic development, increased labor demand, and the diminishing pool of ethnic migrants have caused a decline in emigration.
Another factor contributing to a new influx of migrants into Kazakhstan is population growth in southern Central Asian republics.
According to a 2024 public opinion survey conducted by the Demoscope Express Monitoring Bureau, among the 1,100 respondents, 78.5% said they had no plans to emigrate within the next two to three years. Just 6.9% wanted to emigrate, and 5.6% would like to emigrate but couldn’t do that.
The desire for higher income (24.5%), better employment opportunities (14%), and a perceived lack of prospects within Kazakhstan (23.9%) were the most common reasons for emigration. Studying abroad (11.7%), family reunification (2.6%), and returning to ancestral homelands (0.6%) were other motivations.
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Despite significant changes in the economic environment, Serbian small business owners follow the flat-rate tax model for years with the key threshold of an annual turnover of up to six million dinars unchanged since 2013.
The problem is that consumer prices have increased by 70%, diminishing the real value of this threshold significantly and making it increasingly difficult to stay in the system.
Notably, only entrepreneurs who earn less than six million dinars in a calendar year have the right to flat-rate taxation.
But as an expert analysis in the Grey Book published by NALED states, the inflation has eaten away a substantial part of that amount, more and more people are falling out of the system because of basic market dynamics.
As for VAT threshold, there is an even greater inconsistency (eight million dinars). It is based on the last 12 months of business activity, rather than the calendar year, so entrepreneurs can enter the VAT system even if they have not yet surpassed the six million dinar mark in the current year, as the periods do not align.
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A 2020 opinion from the Ministry of Finance further complicated this restriction (no. 430-00-7/2020-04), stating that an entrepreneur who loses the right to flat-rate taxation during the year cannot switch to personal salary payments in that same year and must wait until 15 December to apply for the following year.
Practically, this makes an entrepreneur who unintentionally or due to business growth surpasses the eight million dinar threshold exit the flat-rate system and enter the VAT regime.
Analysts in the Grey Book suggest amendments to raise the upper turnover threshold for flat-rate entrepreneurs in the year preceding from six million to eight million dinars, as Croatia and Montenegro did.
To solve the problem, the Ministry of Finance should issue an opinion or enactment on the application of Article 33a of the Personal Income Tax Law, stating that a flat-rate entrepreneur may opt for personal salary taxation upon exceeding the threshold.
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