Allianz Trade reports Serbia’s economy growth by 3.5-4% in 2026-2027
A global trade credit insurer Allianz Trade expects Serbia’s economic growth to quicken to 3.5-4% in 2026 and 2027, compared to an estimated 2.1% increase in 2025.
As Allianz Trade said in its annual research Country Risk Atlas 2026 published on Monday, wage growth and easing inflation should help private consumption remain resilient. Nevertheless, tighter labor market conditions and slowing productivity gains may cap momentum. Public investment is still acting as a short-term growth anchor, yet its net domestic spillovers import-intensive nature is reduced.
Also, strategic infrastructure and energy projects ahead of the EXPO 2027 support Serbia’s medium-term growth potential. This international exhibition to be held in Belgrade has also links with the country’s diversification efforts.
Allianz Trade expects inflation to remain within target and to allow for cautious monetary easing, despite the renewed food or energy price shocks that could reintroduce volatility. They also add that external demand remains a mild drag, given weak performance of Serbia’s key European partners.
A six-month cap on retail margins on staples and basic goods at 20% was imposed the Serbian government in September aiming to ease inflation pressures. It resulted in slowing annual consumer price inflation gradually to 2.7% in December from August’s 4.7%. The central bank expects annual inflation to remain within the 1.5-4.5% target range in the short term.
As Allianz Trade noted, Serbia’s cyclical risks are manageable. Nevertheless, they could tilt to the downside if global financial conditions tighten or domestic confidence weakens ahead of key political milestones. Meanwhile, improved market credibility, declining public debt and continued access to domestic and international funding can benefit the financing profile of the country. Also, investor appetite for dinar- and euro-denominated debt supports this tendency.
Despite a good capitalization of the banking sector, tightening credit terms annoy smaller firms and households. Also, sustained FDI inflows to offset import-heavy investment cause the current account deficit.
Politically speaking, balancing between hopes for EU accession and close ties with Russia and China define Serbia’s foreign policy. This position “adds strategic ambiguity, exposing the country to shifting external pressures”. Additionally, episodic security and diplomatic risks arise from unresolved tensions with Kosovo.
Meanwhile, prolonged protest against incumbent politicians with increasing medium-term succession and institutional risks dominate domestic politics. According to Allianz Trade, it creates public opposition to mining and energy projects, especially lithium. This protest might intensify social unrest and delay strategic investments.
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As Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov said at briefing with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on the latest economic figures at an expanded government meeting in Astana on Feb. 10, foreign capital inflows to Kazakhstan surpassed $58 billion in 2025.
Bektenov said that foreign direct investment increased by $1.5 billion, or 10.9%, over nine months and reached $14.9 billion. The rise of fixed capital investment was 13% (22.7 trillion tenge (US$46.1 billion).
Minister added that public investment increased by 800 billion tenge [US$1.6 billion], while the growth of private investment was 2.4 trillion tenge [US$4.9 billion].
This was the result of 212 projects with a combined value of $115 billion in 2025.
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Economically speaking, GDP grew steadily by 6.5%. The expansion of transport was 17.8%, of construction – 14.6%, of mining – 17.4%, of manufacturing -12.2%, of trade -26% and of agriculture – 5.9%.
According to Bektenov, current manufacturing growth rates are insufficient to achieve full economic diversification. So, the government is implementing projects involving higher value-added production in metallurgy, mechanical engineering and the agro-industrial sector to accelerate momentum.
The Minister acknowledged a number of issues that required prompt action despite economic growth, such as modernizing the country’s infrastructure and implementing large government-led industrial projects. At the same time, it is also necessary to support small and medium-sized businesses.
For example, concessional loans for small and medium-sized enterprises within 10 days to purchase modern machinery without additional collaterals is one of the key initiatives. Baiterek Holding will operate this special scheme. The increase of the number of active SMEs in Kazakhstan as of the end of 2025 was 5% (more than 2.2 million). The sector employed 4.5 million people, or nearly 46% of total employment and nearly half of the economically active population (3.9% growth).
Total output of SMEs was about 73 trillion tenge (US$148.3 billion) (40.5% of GDP).
Also, the transport sector grew steadily. As Bektenov said, the modernization of 11,000 kilometers of roads and expand airport throughput capacity to handle up to 40 passengers was in the government’s plans.
He said that this year the construction of two railway lines totaling 475 kilometers will be completed and 2,900 kilometers of track will be modernized. Transit freight volumes will increase by 60%, and the average speed of transit container trains will reach 50 kilometers per hour. This will reduce cargo delivery time from the Chinese border to the Caspian Sea from 84 hours to 55 hours by the end of this year.
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