Kazakhstan’s service sector reports increase in activity

The headline Freedom Holding Corp. PMI® Business Activity Index signaled a sixth consecutive monthly rise in output across the Kazakh service sector in June. Moreover, at 55.1, up from 54.3 in May, the index rose for a fourth straight month and indicated a steep rise in activity — the highest recorded in the series’ history, which dates back to March 2019.

According to Yerlan Abdikarimov, director of the Financial Analysis Department at Freedom Finance Global, new contracts and marketing strategies revived the market, supporting employment. Rising operating costs have already been partly reflected in the growth of sales prices.

«At the same time, we see signals of a probable market correction: the pace of business activity growth has slowed sharply compared to May, which saw the strongest increase in the past two years, while expectations for the year ahead have dropped to a 12-month low,» he said.

The expert believes that such dynamics, against the backdrop of reaching a peak in business activity growth, may indicate increased caution among businesses regarding the second half of 2025, driven by growing overall uncertainty amid intensified competition, foreign trade risks (including the ruble factor), and changes in tax policy.

«Nevertheless, it should be noted that business expectations are still in the optimistic zone,» Abdikarimov emphasized.

The Kazakhstan Manufacturing PMI slipped from 51.3 in May to 49.7 in June. Although this signaled the first deterioration in business conditions in 16 months, the index pointed to only a marginal worsening in the health of the sector. Central to the deterioration in operating conditions was a renewed reduction in manufacturing output — the first since February 2024. Production declined notably amid softer new order growth and reports of pauses to repair machinery.

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