Income gaps and protest risks put Kazakhstan’s regional policy under scrutiny

Plans for implementing the country’s regional policy concept for 2025-2030 has been published on the Legalacts.egov.kz portal by Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy. Significant economic disparities between regions, ongoing migration from rural areas to cities and the potential risk of mass protests are in its spotlight. Notably, regional inequality marks Kazakhstan’s economic growth. For example, the difference in gross regional product (GRP) per capita between the Atyrau and Turkestan regions is 10.7%. The Atyrau region (30%) and the cities of Astana (15.9%) and Almaty (10.2%) concentrate more than half of the country’s fixed assets.
However, mining remains the main industry (76%) in western regions, despite their overall contribution to GDP declining from 29.9% in 2019 to 25.9% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of southern regions in GDP increased from 13.2% to 15.1%, despite the low labor productivity (approximately $10,800 per worker, compared to the national average of $23,000).
Unevenness also touches infrastructure development across Kazakhstan. Utility networks remain critically the deteriorated, while 98% of urban residents and 94.8% of rural residents have access to water supply, and 58% have access to gas supply. 64% is the wear -and-tear rate for power supply, 55.9% for wastewater systems and 53.1% for heating infrastructure.
Strain is also present in education infrastructure. Repairs are required in nearly 17.6% of schools, while the student seat shortage achieved 270,100 in 2023.
Another social issue is the unemployment rate, that surpassed national average of 4.7% in Kazakhstan’s western and southern regions. 46% of workers are self-employed in the Turkestan region and up to 9% of residents in the south live below the subsistence minimum.
NEET category, i.e. not in education, employment or training, includes approximately 400,000 young people (7.3%). A risk of social instability and growing protest sentiment is especially significant in the Mangystau, Karaganda and Turkestan regions due to the high concentration of NEET youth.
Another issue highlighting regional disparities is migration patterns. 184,800 people left the Turkestan region, while 116,400 moved out of the Zhambyl region, according to recent statistics. On the contrary, in Astana and Almaty, there was an influx of 51,500 and 43,200 migrants, respectively.
Population decline is also actual for Northern regions. The decrease consisted 40,800 residents over the past five years, while the share of elderly people in the East Kazakhstan region has attained 15.6%.
According to the policy concept, there are three groups of the regions: high-growth (Astana, Almaty and southern regions), stable (the Aktobe and Zhambyl regions) and depressed (northern regions). The plan proposes economic diversification, infrastructure modernization, measures to mitigate social risks, to prevent destabilization and to ensure sustainable development.

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