Kazakhstan Sees Decline in Emigration
In the first four months of this year, only 1,700 people left the country for permanent residence abroad – 2.8 times fewer than during the same period in 2024, when the figure stood at 4,800.
At the same time, immigration also showed a downward trend. From January to April, 8,100 people arrived in Kazakhstan for permanent residence, compared to 9,900 during the same period last year. Despite this, the country’s migration balance has remained positive since February 2024, with more people entering than leaving.
Long-term data reflects a steady reduction in outward migration over the past 25 years. While 155,700 people left Kazakhstan in 2000, only 12,700 emigrated in 2024. Temporary increases were observed during 2006-2008 and 2017-2019, but overall, emigration has declined. In 2023, Kazakhstan’s net migration balance turned positive for the first time in years, reaching 16,600.
The highest shares of emigrants continue to come from northern and eastern regions, with Kostanay, Pavlodar, Abai, North Kazakhstan and East Kazakhstan, accounting for 47.9% of all outbound migration in 2024.
Experts attribute the decline to several long-term factors. A United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report titled We, Kazakhstan, projected this trend, linking it to the country’s growing economy, sustained demand for labor, a decrease in large-scale ethnic migration and population growth in neighboring Central Asian countries – a source of incoming migrants to Kazakhstan.
Russia remains the top destination for emigration, but outflows are shrinking. In the first quarter of 2025, 644 Kazakh citizens moved to Russia – a 75.5% drop compared to the same period last year. Germany, the second most popular destination, also saw a sharp decline of 67.9%.
According to the Bureau of Public Opinion Express Monitoring, the Demoscope survey, conducted in late 2024, showed that the majority of Kazakh citizens are not considering emigration in the near future. Out of 1,100 respondents from across the country, 78.5% said they had no plans to move abroad, while only 6.9% said they were planning to emigrate, and 5.6% wanted to but lacked the means. Around 8.4% were undecided.
Among those who were considering emigration, the most cited motivations were higher potential income – 24.5%, better job opportunities – 14%, and concerns about the lack of prospects for themselves or their children in Kazakhstan – 23.9%. Only a small share named education abroad – 11.7%, family reunification – 2.6%, or returning to ancestral homelands – 0.6%, as key reasons.
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