Serbia will face a shortage of 100,000 workers in the next decade
Despite the potential for creating a unified labour market among Western Balkan countries, labour migration within the region is minimal, with the majority of migration still directed toward European Union countries, according to the Institute for Innovation and Development (IRI).
An analysis presented at the conference “How to Increase Labour Mobility in the Western Balkans” highlighted that the labour market will shape the future of the region. It also warned that Serbia will face a shortage of 80,000 to 100,000 workers in the next decade, forcing it to compete with far more developed EU countries, which attract people from the region in search of higher incomes and better working conditions.
Since the beginning of the year, only 174 citizens from the region have applied for free access to the labour market through the Open Balkan mechanism—a very low number that reflects the magnitude of the challenges facing Serbia and the entire region.
“We are competing with EU countries, which offer far better salaries and working conditions to Western Balkan citizens. Serbia or Albania cannot compete with Germany, Switzerland, or Austria. In this context, we will have to compete with them in the coming years and decades, but we are in the second or third tier in the labour market,” said IRI Director Nenad Jevtović.
The development of this analysis was supported by the Open Society Foundation, whose Deputy Director, Miodrag Milosavljević, stressed that migration is a defining feature of the modern world.
“We cannot prevent migration, but we can adopt a balanced approach between inflow and outflow to ensure continuous development—a lack of workforce is an obstacle to growth,” Milosavljević noted.
This point is underscored by the persistent outflow of workers to Western Europe, as well as data from IRI researcher Milica Anđelković Đoković. From January to July this year, 14,693 unique work permits were issued to foreigners, but only 243 went to citizens of regional countries. Đoković also shared that the largest number of long-term visas issued last year in Serbia went to Chinese citizens—almost 9,000 out of a total of 29,000 visas, followed by Indian nationals, who received 3,050 visas.
“It appears that the only foreign workers coming to Serbia are those ‘recruited’ from distant countries who are not intending to stay,” said Dragan Todorović, president of the Independent Union of Belgrade. He added that Serbia’s labour market has been neglected for many years.
These workers, according to Todorović, do not work for lower wages than locals but instead face “time-dumping” in their work hours.
“Instead of working five days for eight hours, they work six or seven days for 10 to 12 hours a day, so employers say they are more productive. They aren’t actually more productive—they’re simply being denied labour rights. They won’t stay here; either they’ll return home or, if they are more educated or resourceful, move on,” Todorović warned.
Despite the difficult situation, solutions are on the horizon, as noted by Bojan Stanić, Deputy Director for Strategic Analysis at the Serbian Chamber of Commerce. “Short-term measures include creating a regional labour market in the Western Balkans, but even this has its limits, as all regional economies face worker shortages, and no one wants to ‘pull’ workers from another country, diminishing their growth potential. The solution is to attract returnees—those who have been educated or started careers abroad—by offering them not only the opportunity to work and earn but also to further develop in a healthy, environmentally-friendly setting,” Stanić explained.
Nenad Jevtović added that some of IRI’s recommendations include joint participation in a unified labour market by regional states, drafting National Economic Migration Strategies, as Serbia has done, and improving infrastructure. “If it takes hours to travel between Skopje and Niš, or if the only efficient way to get from Belgrade to Tirana is by plane, then you can’t expect high labour mobility,” Jevtović warned.
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